The Side that Turns Out Tuesday Wins

The 2024 Election Comes Down to the Wire — Which America Will Turn Out on Tuesday?


by Mathew Boyle, Breitbart.com, November 3, 2024
 

The 2024 election is shaping up to be a photo finish according to polling and voting data streaming in from a variety of places. Some people are making predictions one way or the other, suggesting they have insight on whether former President Donald Trump will pull off the greatest comeback in American political history or whether Vice President Kamala Harris will pull off an unprecedented victory after her late entrance into the race when her boss, President Joe Biden, dropped out.

It all comes down to who votes, which party turns out their people, and which theory of the case is right. I’m not going to make a prediction as I think those are useless. But I will do here is lay out what I think the landscape looks like and a compelling theory of the case explaining what I’ve been looking at in the final weeks and will be looking at in the final two days of this election. The answer to the question of which theory is correct we will find out on Tuesday night.

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I’m inevitably asked by basically everybody in the lead-up to an election what I think will happen. People who work in the business, and people who just tune in in the final days, everyone who knows me knows this is not my first rodeo with presidential elections. I’ve covered many of them–this is my third one at Breitbart News, and it’s my fourth one working in the news business. I’ve also covered many more midterms, special elections, and off-year elections as well. And people know I obsess over data, from polls and voting patterns, trying to get ahead of the curve on demographic swings or changes that might be coming.

My track record is pretty good, I’d argue, especially when it comes to seeing stuff others miss–most notably of course the 2016 election, but also key stuff in 2014, 2018, 2020, 2021, 2022, and more. I’m also in constant contact with similar folks on both sides of the aisle trying to decipher headwinds, and talk to the various campaign and outside group folks and have a generally good idea of where to get reliable information and where to apply some healthy skepticism.

I don’t like happy talk from either side, and I try to make sense of what’s actually going to happen rather than providing a biased or slanted view. When election night comes and goes, of course, reality will set in no matter what–and someone has to win, and someone has to lose. The biggest question I always inevitably get after 2016 and 2020 both saw major polling industry misses is whether or not that’s going to happen again. There’s a lot of reason to believe it will, but we won’t know for sure until the votes are counted.

So what I’m going to do here is something a little bit different than I normally do in news coverage. I’m going to lay the landscape as I see it now and what I expect and am looking for to figure out whose theory of the case is correct–and yes, as you’ve probably already noticed, I’m very much using first person here which is abnormal for me.

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Please, I beg readers and observers: Hold me to this case when the election is over. While I’m not making a prediction on who ultimately will win, I obviously want Trump to pull it off–I’ve said so publicly and even told the former president when I interviewed him in mid-October I was voting for him myself–and I can see a clear pathway for him to be able to do so. But there’s also a clear case to be made the other way, and yes I hate hedgers but that’s what I’m doing here–hedging, because while there are indeed lots of good signs for Trump that’s what they are: signs.

Nobody knows exactly what will happen until it happens, and anyone who claims they can see the future is dead wrong: As far as I can tell, that superpower does not exist in humans at least not yet.

 

Click Here to Read the Remainder of this Story at Breitbart.com


 

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