US added 119K jobs in September when only 50K were projected . . . plus GDP Growth was 4.2%

The U.S. economy added jobs in September amid uncertainty about economic conditions, but job creation levels remained relatively subdued and added to signs of a weakening labor market.

The Labor Department on Thursday reported that employers added 119,000 jobs in September, a figure that was above the 50,000 estimate of economists polled by LSEG.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, which was higher than economists' expectations.

The manufacturing sector lost 6,000 jobs in September, a smaller drop than the 8,000 loss estimated by LSEG economists. Overall, the manufacturing sector is down 94,000 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis from a year ago.

Healthcare businesses added 42,800 jobs in September, which was slightly higher than the 12-month average of 42,000 over the last year, led by gains in ambulatory healthcare services (+23,300) and hospitals (+16,400).

Food services and drinking places added 36,500 jobs in September, while the social assistance industry gained 14,300 jobs for the month.

Transportation and warehousing shed 25,300 jobs in September, driven by losses in warehousing and storage (-10,700) and couriers and messengers (-6,700).

US HOUSEHOLD DEBT HITS A NEW RECORD, NY FED FINDS

The labor force participation rate was 62.4% in September, having changed little over the month and the past year. The employment-population ratio was also little changed in September at 59.7% – though it's down 0.4 percentage points over the last year.

The number of long-term unemployed, defined as being jobless for 27 weeks or more, changed little at 1.8 million in September. The long-term unemployed accounted for 23.6% of all unemployed people for the month.

Stephen Moore praises Trump’s GROWING economy and says:

"Whatever Trump is doing, it's working." 🔥 pic.twitter.com/gBmgmX9zhp

— Gary D (@KMGGaryde) November 20, 2025

About That ‘Sh*tty’ Trump Economy

Issues & Insights.com, November 20, 2025

That’s how the diminutive former Clinton labor secretary put it recently on his Substack page, and it’s the message Democrats desperately want every American to hear. We have an affordability crisis! Real wages are falling!! Trump is making it worse!!! The recent elections show the depth of despair!!!!

It’s true that Americans aren’t particularly happy at the moment. The TIPP Economic Optimism Index (TIPP is I&I’s polling partner) is lower today than it was in June 2020, during peak COVID mania. And just 34% give Trump an “A” or “B” grade on his handling of the economy in the latest I&I/TIPP poll, while 49% give him a “D” or an “F.”

But it’s also true that the economy is doing better – in some ways much better – than Democrats (and their handmaidens in the mainstream press) will ever admit.

Consider this: According to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast, the economy grew by 4.2% in the third quarter, which ended in October. (The Commerce Department won’t release its official GDP estimate until later this month.)

If that growth rate holds, it will be on top of the 3.8% gain in the second quarter. Which means that from April through October (the first full six months of economic performance in Trump’s second term), the economy will have grown at a faster pace than it did in the previous three years under Joe Biden.

If anyone other than Trump were in the White House, this would be front-page news.

So would the fact that real wages – that is, after adjusting for inflation – were up almost 1% in just the first eight months of this year. When Joe Biden left office, real wages were nearly 2% below where they were when he took office.

So, too, would the fact that inflation has been tamed. While consumers are still feeling the effects of Bidenflation, price increases have at least started to return to pre-Biden levels. The average inflation rate in Trump’s first term was 2%. Under Biden, it was 5%. So far under Trump II, it’s 3%.

But what about the sluggish job growth that Reich and others complain about, and the affordability crisis that has become the latest buzzword among Democrats?

Both of these, it turns out, are largely blue state problems, not the result of anything Trump has or hasn’t done.

For example, six of the 10 states with the highest unemployment rates are heavily Democratic. At the other end, six of the 10 states with the lowest unemployment rates are deep red.

And as our friends at the Committee to Unleash Prosperity note, “9 of the 10 most expensive states are either blue or purple states. New Hampshire is the one outlier. Meanwhile, all 10 of the lowest-cost states are run by Republicans.

“Middle-class consumers pay a high price for progressive and anti-business policies in the state capitals,” says CTUP’s Steve Moore.

Oh, and federal deficits are coming in lower under Trump than they were in Biden’s last year in office.

If this is what constitutes a “sh*tty economy”, then we’ll take more of it.

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