GOP GOTV set to swamp Biden lead, 'Election Day to look like a Trump rally’
by Paul Bedard
The Trump campaign, exuding eleventh-hour confidence, is revealing raw voter data that suggests to it that Joe Biden’s lead in early voting will be swamped by a red wave of GOP voters on Election Day.
“In a lot of places across the country, Election Day is going to look like a Trump rally,” said Nick Trainer, the Trump campaign’s director of battleground strategy.
In a detailed review of the key states and upcoming voting, Trainer said that the campaign and the Republican National Committee's get-out-the-vote effort is set up to push even “low propensity” Trump voters to the polls.
“This is what it was built for,” he said, predicting reelection.
In a call to reporters to suggest that the Biden campaign plans to drag out the election vote counting, Trainer turned to the current voting to declare that the Democrat’s lead in early voting is about to go poof.
Here’s what he said, for example, about Pennsylvania, where the Democrats feel confident that early votes will be too many for President Trump to overcome. He suggested an eventual victory by at least 100,000 votes.
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“So, Pennsylvania, the Democrats are going to have somewhere in the neighborhood of a three-quarter million head start heading into tomorrow, probably more than that. What we know right now that there are 2.6 million Trump voters likely to show up tomorrow, and there are 1.5 million remaining Biden voters to show up tomorrow. So, Pennsylvania, in particular, is going to look on election night on an Election Day vote standpoint like the president wins in an absolute landslide. However, we know the margins he needs to win by in Pennsylvania, and that math is available to us from a turnout perspective,” he said.
He went through several other states, providing the raw data from voter surveys, dismissing the polls, and suggesting that the campaign and party have a much better idea of what Trump voters plan to do. He also indicated that the Biden advantage in early voting isn’t as good as Hillary Rodham Clinton had in 2016.
The review helped to explain Trump's push in the past two weeks since he recovered from COVID-19 to storm battleground states and urge his base to vote.
Here are Trainer’s unedited data drop quotes on several battleground states and on the narrowing early voter gap and tomorrow’s in-person voting:
Ohio: “Starting in Ohio, Joe Biden wasted time today to go to Ohio. Weeks ago, the partisan makeup of the electorate in Ohio was Democrats plus-10%. Today, it’s Democrats 0.6%. Going into Election Day in 2016, that gap was Democrats plus-2.5%. President Trump has a projected Election Day margin of over 400,000 net votes in Ohio.”
North Carolina: “In North Carolina, where the president was this morning, Democrats jumped out to a partisan advantage of D plus-32. Today it is D 5.8. Going into Election Day 2016, the partisan advantage was Democrats plus-9.7%. Again, President Trump has a projected Election Day votes cast margin of over 400,000 votes.”
Pennsylvania: “Democrats have banked a ton of high propensity voters, voters that were going to vote anyway have cast their ballot by mail. We have millions of voters left in Pennsylvania for the president. President Trump’s Election Day margin needs to be big, and it will. We currently project he’ll win the Election Day vote in Pennsylvania by over 1 million votes.”
Arizona: “Don Jr. is out in Arizona right now. Weeks ago, the makeup of that electorate was D plus-11.9%. After significant early voting, it is now down to D plus-1.2%. The gap on Election Day in 2016, D plus-2.5%. President Trump will win Election Day in Arizona by 150,000 votes.”
Florida: “Democrats jumped out to an 18.8% partisan advantage during the [absentee-only] voting period. Today, it’s down to 1%. Going into Election Day 2016, the gap was 1.4%. President Trump has an Election Day margin of over 500,000 net ballots.”
Wisconsin: “In Wisconsin, the makeup of the electorate weeks ago, D plus-12.3%. Today, D plus-5.9%. Going into Election Day 2016, that gap was D plus-9.6%. We’ll win Election Day in Wisconsin by over 100,000 votes.”
Nevada: “Democrats jumped out to a 27.3% lead during [absentee ballot voting] only. Today, after significant early voting period, it’s down to D plus-5%. Election Day 2016, it was D plus-7.9%. President Trump has an Election Day margin in Nevada of 50,000 votes.”
Michigan: “They’ve got, again, a ton of high propensity voters in Michigan. And we have nearly 2 million votes for President Trump left. President Trump will need to win Election Day in Michigan by about 350,000 votes. And today, we project an Election Day votes cast margin of over 400,000 votes in President Trump’s favor.”
He concluded, “It’s pretty simple out there. If the voters that we know are still left in the electorate, still wanting to participate in this election, show up tomorrow as they’ve been telling us for well over two years now, President Trump is going to have four more years.”