The Economic State of the Union 2026


The Economic State of the Union

 

By Committee to Unleash Prosperity, February 24, 2025 

Polls show that more than eight of 10 voters want President Trump to focus on the economy in his State of the Union speech. 

That’s a good idea and Trump should tout a series of amazing economic and financial accomplishments.  Stock market at near all time highs, inflation cut in half, real incomes up, middle class savings from the big beautiful tax bill, gas prices down and energy production up. Private employment is up, while government employment is down. Retirement savings for American families (including 401k plans) are up almost $22,000 on average, more than reversing the losses from the Biden years when runaway inflation reduced real returns.  

Meanwhile, Trump policies, such as the Big Beautiful tax bill are increasing take home pay, while deregulation has saved the economy more than $1 trillion in deadweight costs.  

This brief analysis by the economics team at Unleash Prosperity summarizes the good news on the direction of the U.S. economy after one year.  Nearly every measure shows vast improvement over the Biden years. Here are some of the highlights: 

 

1) Trump Ends Bidenflation 

President Trump has slashed inflation from the 9.1% peak under Biden. Costs of everything from cars to groceries to housing grew at their fastest level since Jimmy Carter. Now, Trump has pushed inflation down to close to 2%. The most recent report on prices indicates that inflation could fall to historic lows. Trump has proven 16 Nobel prize economists WRONG.

A chart titled, "Trump slashes Bidenflation."
 

2) Trump Slashes Violent Crime 

Crime is a tax on American businesses and families. Our economy and our society can’t function without safe streets, safe schools, and safe communities. In one year under Donald Trump, the violent crime rates across the country have fallen 20%, 30%, and even 40%.  

A chart titled, "Trump slashes crime rates across USA."
 

3) Illegal Immigration Cut 99.9%

Illegal immigration skyrocketed to 6 to10 million people under Joe Biden - many of them intentionally released by border patrol with little more than a request to appear in court. Under Trump, illegal immigrants processed and released into the country by US Border Patrol have been reduced by more than 99.9% - the largest reduction in illegal aliens in history. This has been achieved in just 12 months with no changes to the law required. 

A chart titled, "Trump ends illegal immigration."
 

4) Draining the Swamp

Government employment was one of the fastest growing industries in America under Biden. All of the increase in jobs under the Trump administration have been productive private sector jobs. Federal employment is DOWN by over 300,000 workers under Trump, and the percentage of Americans working for the government is now the lowest in decades.

A chart titled, "Draining The Swamp, Change in Government Employment by Administration."
 

5) Middle Class Incomes Surge Under Trump

Under Biden, middle-class incomes, after inflation, rose by a microscopic $500 per household. During Trump’s five years as President, real household income for the middle class rose by closer to $9,000.  

A chart titled, "Middle class incomes up $9,000 under Trump, $600 under Biden."
 

6) Middle Class Inflation-Adjusted After-Tax Incomes Up $4,000 in ONE Year Trump 

Median family income rose by almost $2,400 after inflation in 2025. The tax cut added at least $1,600 to middle class salaries. This means that the average family in one year is $4,000 richer under President Trump’s policies. 

a chart titled, "Middle-class income gains $4,000 under Trump."
 

7) Retirement Accounts Come Roaring Back With Trump 

Inflation under Biden decimated retirement accounts and resulted in real losses to the average 401(k) plan. The situation has completely reversed under Trump. 

 

From the first quarter of 2025 through the fourth quarter of that year, the average 401(k) balance increased approximately $24,200, or 17.6%. Adjusted for inflation, that is an increase of approximately $21,800, or 15.8%. 

A chart comparing "Change in Average 401(k) between nominal and real for Trump's first term, Biden's term, and Trump's second term."
A chart titled, "401(k)s way down under Biden, Up under Trump."
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