Dr. Birx Shows Data Does Not Match Predictions of Models

 White House coronavirus task force member Dr. Deborah Birx warned the public not to panic when they hear about models and projections of the pandemic's spread.

"Models are models," she said. "When people start talking about 20% of a population getting infected, it's very scary, but we don't have data that matches that based on our experience."

She said the media should not "make the implication that when they need a hospital bed it's not going to be there, or a ventilator, it's not going to be there, we don't have evidence of that."

"It's our job collectively to assure the American people," she also said. "There is no model right now -- no reality on the ground where we can see that 60% to 70% of Americans are going to get infected in the next eight to 12 weeks. I want to be clear about that."

DR. DEBORAH BRIX: I'm sure you have seen the recent report out of the U.K. about them adjusting completely their needs. This is really quite important. If you remember, that was the report that says there would be 500,000 deaths in the U.K. and 2.2 million deaths in the United States. They've adjusted that number in the U.K. to 20,000. Half a million to 20,000. We are looking at that in great detail to understand that adjustment. 

I'm going to say something that is a little bit complicated but do it in a way we can understand it together. In the model, either you have to have a large group of people who a-asymptomatic, who never presented for any test to have the kind of numbers predicted. To get to 60 million people infected, you have to have a large group of a-symptomatics. We have not seen an attack rate over 1 in 1,000. So either we are measuring the iceberg and underneath it, are a large group of people. So we are working hard to get the antibody test and figure out who these people are and do they exist. Or we have the transmission completely wrong. 

So these are the things we are looking at, because the predictions of the model don't match the reality on the ground in China, South Korea or Italy. We are five times the size of Italy. If we were Italy and did all those divisions, Italy should have close to 400,000 deaths. They are not close to achieving that. 

Models are models. We are -- there is enough data of the real experience with the coronavirus on the ground to really make these predictions much more sound. So when people start talking about 20% of a population getting infected, it's very scary, but we don't have data that matches that based on our experience. 

And the situation about ventilators. We are reassured in meeting with our colleagues in New York that there are still I.C.U. Beds remaining and still significant -- over 1,000 or 2,000 ventilators that have not been utilized. 

Please for the reassurance of people around the world, to wake up this morning and look at people talking about creating DNR situations, Do Not Resuscitate situations for patients, there is no situation in the United States right now that warrants that kind of discussion. You can be thinking about it in the hospital. Certainly, hospitals talk about this on a daily basis, but to say that to the American people and make the implication that when they need a hospital bed it's not going to be there or a ventilator, it's not going to be there, we don't have evidence of that. 

It's our job collectively to assure the American people, it's our job to make sure that doesn't happen. You can see the cases are concentrated in highly urban areas and there are other parts of the states that have lots of ventilators and other parts of New York state that don't have any infected. We can meet the needs by being responsive. 

There is no model right now -- no reality on the ground where we can see that 60% to 70% of Americans are going to get infected in the next eight to 12 weeks. I want to be clear about that. We are adapting to the reality on the ground and looking at the models of how they can inform but learning from South Korea and Italy and from Spain and I know you will look up my numbers.



Ohio Coronavirus Score Card:
Ohio Population: 11,660,000 Average Deaths per day 325
Coronavirus Deaths: 25 Total in 7 Weeks! Positive Cases: 1,406

Ohioans without Pay Checks: Approximately 1,389,950
Lost Wages Past 7 Days: $756,132,800 Estimated
Ohio Businesses Lost: 113,670 Estimated


Dr. Acton was WRONG about 100,000 cases in Ohio because she followed the worst case, now disproved, Imperial College model to Panic Governor DeWine and the People of Ohio. Causing Governor DeWine to take un-necessary and destructive action weeks before it was necessary and is now trying to claim that in doing so we stopped that works case scenario! The data shows that she was DEAD WRONG, there were no where near that many cases in Ohio and her predicted "wave" in March did not arrive!

Why then, after the Imperial College model was adjusted to only 4% of it's previous death projections, after looking at real test data, did Dr. Acton not adjust down her Ohio projection accordingly and advise Governor DeWine to take a new course? Instead abandon the Imperial College new model for an unproven worst case Cleveland Clinic model?? Why? The new model says that Ohio can expect at worst 2,800 deaths from the coronavirus which is almost EXACTLY the number of deaths Ohio suffered from the regular flu just two years ago in 2017-18! No shut downs then! No economic suicides! The data now in, says Dr. Fauci, is that "the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza". So why aren't we going back to work right now Governor? As you will see in the video below - the data is in and Governor DeWine has been played for a fool.

Well now, Dr. Acton, is claiming that the peak wasn't this month, but will not be until May, with NO DATA to prove that, just more "models". Why should you believe her? You should not as Dr. Birx expains in the new video below! Dr. Acton is claiming emphatically that she knows that we will have 10,000 new cases per day in May in Ohio! Yet, New York on its worst day had 2,649 cases and that has gone down every day since! She is fear-mongering about needing three times as many hospital beds and all kinds of ventilators when New York has not run out of beds or ventilators. Dr. Acton has been DEAD WRONG all along and she DEAD WRONG NOW!

It is time to recognize that the "King has no clothes" - Governor DeWine is not saving lives, as much as he likes to think so and wants YOU to think so, he is in fact DESTROYING MILLIONS of Ohioan's lives with his ill-informed, ego driven, destructive actions! Time to cancel your daily drama TV show and get back to acting like a Republican Governor instead of a Democrat/Socialist!